Zero growth in Lebanon during 2015 with 50% losses in tourism

Al Diyar daily noted in its issue of yesterday that the exacerbating political crisis in the country has largely affected the national economy leading to a drastic deterioration in the performance of all sectors supporting its growth. Citing data from international institutions, the newspaper pointed out that growth rate in Lebanon during 2015 is expected to fall to 0% or 1% at best, noting that previous forecasts by the same institutions have estimated it at 1.5% to 2%.

In terms of the performance of the real sectors of the economy (tourism, real estate, investments and exports) during the first 8 months of 2015, Al Diyar noted that tourism has been struggling with the political, security and regional turmoil which severely affected the industry and inflicted losses up of to 25% compared to the same period of 2014. According to informed circles, the overall value of the tourism sector is expected to drop from around USD 8 billion at the end of 2010 to nearly USD3.6 billion in 2015. Likewise, Lebanese exports have faced serious challenges, most importantly the closure of the Syrian-Jordanian borders. Informed industrial sources, meanwhile, have recorded a fall of 18% in exports during 2014 and a further 14% expected this year. Regarding the real estate sector, the absence of Lebanese and Arab investments, has negatively impacted the industry which recorded an unprecedented growth during the period from 2007-2010. Furthermore, data compiled by the General Directorate for Real Estate Affairs indicated a slow performance in the country until last July. 

It should be noted that the Lebanese economy owes much to the Central Bank for the growth reported in 2013 and 2014 (1.5-2% respectively) as a result of the incentive package launched in 2013. The Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh reported that the Bank is planning to launch a new set of incentives in 2016 with an estimated value of one USD billion thus bringing up the total since 2013 to USD 5 billion. (Source: Al Diyar, September 1, 2015)