Slower but consistent deterioration of commercial activity in Lebanon

The BLOM Bank’s Business Monitor International noted that the economic decline in the activity of the private sector has slowed reaching the lowest decline level during the last three months while recoding 47.9 points which brings it closer to the 50.0 points benchmark which indicates a balance situation between growth and decline. Furthermore, the seasonal index update has shown a consistent deterioration of commercial activity in the private sector throughout December 2015. It indicated a continuous fall in the rate of production during the last month of 2015, which was strong but the less steeper since last August.  According to companies targeted in the monthly survey, the major factor which contributed to the continuous fall in productive remains the current instability and the uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the country.

Furthermore, the report indicated that levels of demand remained modest during last December and was accompanied with the continued decline in new business activity. December 2015 also witnessed a drop in the flow of new external business activity and that is for the fifth consecutive month. Regarding the labor market performance, the BMI report pointed out that the declining economic conditions have resulted in low employment levels for the third month in December. While remaining somewhat modest the decline in the total number of employment in the private sector was the worst since August 2014. 

Concluding on the above facts, the Director General of the "BLOM Invest Bank", Fadi Osseiran, said the slower decline in the levels of production forecasted for 2016 is the fruit of the improved political climate recoded during December which raises hopes of a breakthrough in the presidential crisis. (Al Diyar, Al Mustaqbal, Al Hayat, As Safir, January 8, 2016)